Tampa Bay Lightning at Montréal Canadiens
Prediction, pick and result · NHL · Thursday, April 9, 2026
TBL
AwayLightning
1FINALTotal 3 · Over 6.5 missed
MTL
HomeCanadiens
2Official pick · counts in our record
LOSS · -0.50uOver 6.50.5u
Model confidence66%Tier A play
Why the model likes it
Best total edge on the slate points to a more offensive game than the market number suggests.
Our number vs the market
Total goals. Our model priced this game 0.4 goals higher than the sportsbooks.
Market6.5
Our model6.8
Gap+0.4toward Over
2468
Market 6.4
Model 6.8
Final 3
April 9, 2026 · Prices and lines as of our morning run; model picks are information, not betting advice.