Montréal Canadiens at Tampa Bay Lightning

Why the model likes it

The edge exists because the model total of 6.8 is well above the market total of 5.5, indicating strong value on a game that could feature sustained scoring chances. Tampa Bay brings elite finishing talent, power-play upside, and enough offensive depth to threaten this number on its own. Montréal can contribute to an over through pace, transition opportunities, and defensive inconsistency that creates high-danger looks both ways. If the Canadiens fall behind, the game state should open further, increasing the chance of late goals, special-teams scoring, and empty-net sequences.