Montréal Canadiens at Buffalo Sabres

Why the model likes it

The edge comes from a model total of 6.7 against a market total of 5.5, which is a sizable difference for an NHL total. Buffalo tends to play in volatile game environments because their offensive skill can create bursts of scoring, but defensive coverage and goaltending consistency can also be shaky. Montréal often benefits in these kinds of matchups because they can generate enough offense against imperfect defensive teams, especially if the game opens up in transition. With both sides capable of contributing to the scoreboard and defensive reliability not being a major strength here, the over is the clearest angle.