Montréal Canadiens at Buffalo Sabres

Why the model likes it

The model projects 6.7 goals versus a market total of 5.5, creating a meaningful gap and clear value on the over. Buffalo games can open up because their offensive talent creates chances but their defensive play and goaltending consistency can be unreliable. Montréal is also more competitive offensively than a low total implies, especially in games where defensive structure breaks down and pace increases. With both teams capable of trading chances, 5.5 is a modest bar that can be cleared without requiring an extreme shooting performance.