Calgary Flames at Seattle Kraken

Why the model likes it

The model projects six goals, giving the over a modest but actionable advantage at 5.5. Seattle and Calgary are capable of trading stretches rather than one team fully suppressing the other, and that tends to help overs clear lower totals. Even if finishing is average, the combination of special teams, pulled-goalie scenarios, and middle-six scoring depth can push this into six-goal territory. Since the spread edge is negative for the listed favorite, the total is the better way to play it.