Ottawa Senators at Anaheim Ducks

Why the model likes it

The over has value because the model total of 7.2 clears the market by a solid margin, creating one of the better quantitative edges available. Anaheim games can open up due to defensive lapses and inconsistent suppression, while Ottawa brings enough skill and pace to capitalize on those mistakes. The Ducks can still contribute on the scoreboard, especially if the Senators trade chances rather than control the game territorially. With two teams capable of allowing dangerous looks, this matchup profiles well for a 4-3 type outcome.