Ottawa Senators at Buffalo Sabres

Why the model likes it

The model projects 7.1 against a market total of 6.5, which is a solid enough gap to support an over play. Buffalo games can open up quickly because of their transition style and inconsistent defending, while Ottawa also has enough offensive talent to capitalize on loose structure and special-teams chances. Both sides are more trustworthy creating chances than consistently preventing them, which helps produce the back-and-forth script needed for this number. With 6.5 as the closing total, the edge rests on pace, defensive volatility, and the likelihood that both teams contribute multiple goals.