Pittsburgh Penguins at Anaheim Ducks

Why the model likes it

The edge exists because the model projects 7.6 goals, a full 1.1 above the market, which is a large discrepancy for an NHL total. Pittsburgh still has the skill and puck-moving ability to create sustained offense, while Anaheim's games can become open due to defensive breakdowns and inconsistent containment in their own zone. The Ducks can also contribute enough offense themselves against a Penguins team that has shown vulnerability in high-event games. With both teams offering pathways to odd-man rushes, power-play goals, and late scoring, this matchup profiles as one of the best over spots on the board.