Golden State Warriors at Denver Nuggets

Prediction, pick and result · NBA · Sunday, March 29, 2026

GSW

AwayWarriors

FINALTotal 209 · Under 239 cashed

DEN

HomeNuggets

116

Official pick · counts in our record

WIN · +0.94u

Under 2391u

Model confidence86%Tier A play

Why the model likes it

The market is pricing in a much cleaner offensive game than the projection supports. The spread profile also adds meaningful blowout risk, which is a major under-friendly factor at this number.

Our number vs the market

Total points. Our model priced this game 8.8 points lower than the sportsbooks.

Market239

Our model230.1

Gap−8.8toward Under

200220240260

Market 238.9

Model 230.1

Final 209

March 29, 2026 · Prices and lines as of our morning run; model picks are information, not betting advice.