Data refreshes every morning around 7:45am ET when the model publishes new outputs.
This total grades as a strong Over with a +10.7 point model edge, implying the market is underestimating combined scoring output. The matchup tends to support more transition and early-clock offense, which increases possessions and raises the scoring baseline even if efficiency is merely average. Both teams’ shot profiles generally lean toward higher-variance, higher-ceiling scoring (3s and rim pressure), which can push totals beyond market expectations when pace is elevated. With a modest spread, a competitive game script is more likely, keeping starters engaged late and adding end-game fouling/FT points rather than a pace collapse from a blowout.
The model makes this 236.7, creating a +6.0 point edge to the Over at 230.7. The matchup projects well for offensive efficiency—spacing and shot quality tend to be strong here, supporting sustained scoring across all four quarters. Pace should be sufficient to avoid long scoring droughts, and even a moderate number of extra possessions materially lifts a total in the 230 range. Game script also matters: if the margin stays within reach, late fouling and free throws can add several points quickly and help clear the number.
This projects 234.7 versus a 228.7 market total, giving a +6.0 point edge that clears the 3-point threshold. The underlying case is that the scoring baseline is being undervalued—either through a pace expectation that’s too low or through efficiency that the matchup should allow. When both sides can generate points without relying solely on tough midrange creation, scoring becomes more stable and less dependent on extreme shooting. With a relatively tight spread, the fourth quarter is more likely to feature full-strength lineups and intentional fouling dynamics that inflate totals late.