Golden State Warriors at Phoenix Suns
Prediction, pick and result · NBA · Friday, April 17, 2026
GSW
AwayWarriors
96FINALTotal 207 · Over 218.5 missed
PHX
HomeSuns
111Official pick · counts in our record
LOSS · -0.50uOver 218.50.5u
Model confidence60%Tier A play
Why the model likes it
Projection supports the over, with enough scoring equity from both perimeter-oriented offenses to beat a relatively modest number. This is a cleaner play if primary scorers are on normal workloads.
Our number vs the market
Total points. Our model priced this game 4.4 points higher than the sportsbooks.
Market219.5
Our model224.1
Gap+4.4toward Over
200210220230
Market 219.7
Model 224.1
Final 207
April 17, 2026 · Prices and lines as of our morning run; model picks are information, not betting advice.