Portland Trail Blazers at San Antonio Spurs
Prediction, pick and result · NBA · Tuesday, April 21, 2026
POR
AwayTrail Blazers
106FINALTotal 209 · Over 220.5 missed
SAS
HomeSpurs
103Official pick · counts in our record
LOSS · -0.50uOver 220.50.5u
Model confidence71%Tier A play
Why the model likes it
This total is below the model by a healthy margin and profiles as a pace-friendly spot. Defensive consistency from either side is not strong enough to justify a number this low.
Our number vs the market
Total points. Our model priced this game 7.8 points higher than the sportsbooks.
Market220
Our model228.0
Gap+7.8toward Over
200210220230240
Market 220.2
Model 228
Final 209
April 21, 2026 · Prices and lines as of our morning run; model picks are information, not betting advice.