NBA · every game priced

NBA predictions for Thursday, April 23

3games priced

2official picks

1model leans, not picks

0held back, gap too wide

StartMatchupMarketModelGap (total)Our call

7:10 PMKnicks at HawksFinal · NYK 108, ATL 109216.5227.1+10.7Official pickOver 216.5 · 1u 8:10 PMCavaliers at RaptorsFinal · CLE 104, TOR 126219.5226.5+6.9Official pickOver 220 · 0.5u 9:30 PMNuggets at TimberwolvesFinal · DEN 96, MIN 113234231.2−2.6LeanUnder 234

Official pick: on our card and in our public record. Lean: the model and the market differ, but the game did not make the card, so no stake and no record.

Held back: the gap is unusually wide, which more often means missing news than value, so we pass. Gap = our number minus the market's; right of center leans Over.