Philadelphia 76ers at Boston Celtics

Why the model likes it

The over edge is driven primarily by offensive efficiency rather than a pure track meet, as Boston can score in multiple ways and pressure a defense with high 3PA volume and strong half-court execution. Philadelphia does not need to dominate offensively for this to get there; at 214.8, even league-average support scoring is enough if Boston approaches its median output. The spread is large, so blowout script is a concern, but Boston's ability to generate points quickly can still put the game on over pace before that risk fully matters. If the game remains within reach, late fouling adds another path above a relatively modest total.