Toronto Raptors at Cleveland Cavaliers

Why the model likes it

The over case starts with Cleveland's offensive edge, especially in a matchup where the Cavaliers should be able to score efficiently both inside and from the perimeter. Toronto's defensive inconsistency can lead to easy runs, and the Raptors are capable of adding enough pace and transition offense to prevent this from turning into a pure grind. A mid-sized spread is actually helpful because it still allows a realistic path to a competitive fourth quarter without pricing in too much blowout suppression. If Toronto keeps this within striking distance, the game script supports extra late possessions and foul shots above a modest total.