San Antonio Spurs at New York Knicks

Why the model likes it

This totals edge exists because the projection sits well above the closing market, implying the matchup environment is being priced too conservatively. San Antonio generally raises possession counts and can pull slower opponents into a more transition-friendly game, while New York has enough half-court efficiency to capitalize against a defense that can give up clean looks and foul opportunities. If this stays near the short spread, the close-game script supports late free throws and extended scoring equity rather than a dead-possession finish. The main Over case is pace inflation from the Spurs side plus sufficient offensive efficiency from New York to push this game beyond a modest mid-215s total.