Sacramento Kings at New Orleans Pelicans

Why the model likes it

This total is priced near the top of the NBA range, so even a modest downgrade in offensive efficiency creates value on the Under. Sacramento and New Orleans can both play fast, but totals this elevated require sustained transition volume and strong half-court shotmaking, which is difficult to maintain for 48 minutes. If either side gains separation, blowout risk can suppress fourth-quarter pace and reduce the possession count needed to clear 236.5. The Under also benefits from natural shooting variance at such a high number, especially if 3-point conversion or free-throw volume comes in slightly below expectation.