New Orleans Pelicans at Memphis Grizzlies

Why the model likes it

The edge comes from the projection sitting nearly 4 points below market, indicating the total is stretched toward a ceiling outcome. While the raw pace environment may look attractive, unders in high totals often hinge on efficiency regression, and 234.5 assumes both teams finish possessions at a strong rate. If one side gets control, the game can shift away from the end-to-end script needed for this number, and late possessions may shorten rather than expand. Travel, rotation volatility, and normal 3-point variance all favor the under when the market hangs a premium total.