Data refreshes every morning around 7:45am ET when the model publishes new outputs.
The model expects more points than the market total, suggesting either pace or efficiency is being underpriced. Both teams have shown the ability to score in spurts, and defensive consistency can be an issue—especially in transition and after turnovers. A close Big East game also increases the chance of late fouling and free throws. Spread edge is small, so the total is the stronger angle.
Colgate’s projection exceeds the market spread, indicating value on the favorite. Holy Cross can struggle to keep up offensively when forced into half-court possessions, which increases the likelihood of extended droughts and a widening margin. Colgate’s offensive execution typically creates consistent scoring, making it easier to cover if they avoid turnover issues. Total is essentially aligned, so side is the play.
The model projects Kennesaw State to win by more than 5.5, implying value on the favorite. Western Kentucky can score, but if Kennesaw controls the glass and forces tougher looks, WKU’s efficiency can swing downward quickly. The matchup also suggests Kennesaw has multiple ways to create separation (defense into transition plus steady half-court scoring). Total edge is minimal, so stick to the spread.