Denver Nuggets at Memphis Grizzlies

Prediction, pick and result · NBA · Wednesday, March 18, 2026

DEN

AwayNuggets

118

FINALTotal 243 · Under 242 missed

MEM

HomeGrizzlies

125

Official pick · counts in our record

LOSS · -1.00u

Under 2421u

Model confidence80%Tier B play

Why the model likes it

242.0 is an inflated number relative to the model, and the market appears to be overpricing pace and recent scoring form. This is a strong Under unless key defensive absences materially changed pre-close assumptions.

Our number vs the market

Total points. Our model priced this game 8.4 points lower than the sportsbooks.

Market242

Our model233.6

Gap−8.4toward Under

230235240245250

Market 242

Model 233.6

Final 243

March 18, 2026 · Prices and lines as of our morning run; model picks are information, not betting advice.