Portland Trail Blazers at Denver Nuggets

Prediction, pick and result · NBA · Sunday, March 22, 2026

POR

AwayTrail Blazers

112

FINALTotal 240 · Under 242 cashed

DEN

HomeNuggets

128

Official pick · counts in our record

WIN · +0.94u

Under 2421u

Model confidence88%Tier A play

Why the model likes it

This number looks materially inflated relative to the model's 229.4 projection, creating a massive 12.4-point edge to the under. Even if the line is reacting to recent scoring form, it appears stale at an unsustainably high level.

Our number vs the market

Total points. Our model priced this game 12.4 points lower than the sportsbooks.

Market242

Our model229.4

Gap−12.4toward Under

225230235240245

Market 241.8

Model 229.4

Final 240

March 22, 2026 · Prices and lines as of our morning run; model picks are information, not betting advice.