Miami Heat at Cleveland Cavaliers

Prediction, pick and result · NBA · Friday, March 27, 2026

MIA

AwayHeat

128

FINALTotal 277 · Under 241.5 missed

CLE

HomeCavaliers

149

Official pick · counts in our record

LOSS · -1.00u

Under 241.51u

Model confidence86%Tier A play

Why the model likes it

This market total looks notably overstated versus the model, which projects 232.9. Even if the line is a bit stale, the gap is large enough to keep the under playable.

Our number vs the market

Total points. Our model priced this game 9.5 points lower than the sportsbooks.

Market242.5

Our model232.9

Gap−9.5toward Under

220240260280300

Market 242.4

Model 232.9

Final 277

March 27, 2026 · Prices and lines as of our morning run; model picks are information, not betting advice.