San Antonio Spurs at Denver Nuggets

Prediction, pick and result · NBA · Saturday, April 4, 2026

SAS

AwaySpurs

134

FINALTotal 270 · Under 243 missed

DEN

HomeNuggets

136

Official pick · counts in our record

LOSS · -1.00u

Under 2431u

Model confidence88%Tier B play

Why the model likes it

This is the strongest totals edge on the board, with the market far above the projection. Even with San Antonio's pace tendencies, 242.9 requires near-perfect offensive conditions that are hard to sustain.

Our number vs the market

Total points. Our model priced this game 14.5 points lower than the sportsbooks.

Market243

Our model228.4

Gap−14.5toward Under

200220240260280300

Market 242.9

Model 228.4

Final 270

April 4, 2026 · Prices and lines as of our morning run; model picks are information, not betting advice.