Utah Jazz at Oklahoma City Thunder

Prediction, pick and result · NBA · Sunday, April 5, 2026

UTA

AwayJazz

111

FINALTotal 257 · Under 239 missed

OKC

HomeThunder

146

Official pick · counts in our record

LOSS · -0.50u

Under 2390.5u

Model confidence72%Tier A play

Why the model likes it

Market total looks inflated relative to the projection, and the extreme spread raises clear blowout-related under risk. Even if Oklahoma City scores efficiently, fourth-quarter pace can collapse in a non-competitive script.

Our number vs the market

Total points. Our model priced this game 8.2 points lower than the sportsbooks.

Market239

Our model230.6

Gap−8.2toward Under

220230240250260270

Market 238.8

Model 230.6

Final 257

April 5, 2026 · Prices and lines as of our morning run; model picks are information, not betting advice.