Miami Heat at Toronto Raptors

Prediction, pick and result · NBA · Thursday, April 9, 2026

MIA

AwayHeat

114

FINALTotal 242 · Under 239 missed

TOR

HomeRaptors

128

Official pick · counts in our record

LOSS · -1.00u

Under 2391u

Model confidence82%Tier B play

Why the model likes it

The market total is well above the model and likely overstates the offensive quality of this matchup. This projects closer to a controlled possession game than a full-track meet.

Our number vs the market

Total points. Our model priced this game 8.5 points lower than the sportsbooks.

Market239

Our model230.6

Gap−8.5toward Under

225230235240245

Market 239.1

Model 230.6

Final 242

April 9, 2026 · Prices and lines as of our morning run; model picks are information, not betting advice.