Portland Trail Blazers at San Antonio Spurs
Prediction, pick and result · NBA · Sunday, April 19, 2026
POR
AwayTrail Blazers
98FINALTotal 209 · Over 222.5 missed
SAS
HomeSpurs
111Official pick · counts in our record
LOSS · -0.50uOver 222.50.5u
Model confidence57%Tier A play
Why the model likes it
Model projects this game comfortably above the closing total. The main path is San Antonio dictating pace against a weaker defense, though blowout risk keeps confidence moderate.
Our number vs the market
Total points. Our model priced this game 6.7 points higher than the sportsbooks.
Market221.5
Our model228.0
Gap+6.7toward Over
200210220230240
Market 221.3
Model 228
Final 209
April 19, 2026 · Prices and lines as of our morning run; model picks are information, not betting advice.