Phoenix Suns at Oklahoma City Thunder

Prediction, pick and result · NBA · Wednesday, April 22, 2026

PHX

AwaySuns

107

FINALTotal 227 · Over 213.5 cashed

OKC

HomeThunder

120

Official pick · counts in our record

WIN · +0.49u

Over 213.50.5u

Model confidence68%Tier A play

Why the model likes it

Model makes this total meaningfully low relative to projected scoring. Blowout risk is real, but the number is depressed enough to still favor the over.

Our number vs the market

Total points. Our model priced this game 5.1 points higher than the sportsbooks.

Market215.5

Our model220.4

Gap+5.1toward Over

210215220225230

Market 215.3

Model 220.4

Final 227

April 22, 2026 · Prices and lines as of our morning run; model picks are information, not betting advice.