Charlotte Hornets at Washington Wizards

Why the model likes it

This Over stands out because both the raw projection gap and the stylistic matchup support a higher-possession game than 220.5 suggests. Washington games are frequently vulnerable to pace spikes and defensive efficiency breakdowns, and Charlotte's offense gets a friendlier environment against that type of opponent. The Over also benefits from the possibility that neither defense consistently closes possessions, creating second-chance points and easy transition looks after misses or turnovers. As long as the score remains reasonably competitive, the combination of shaky defense, potential free-throw volume, and late-game fouling makes the path to the mid-220s very realistic.