Chicago Bulls at New York Knicks

Why the model likes it

This totals edge exists because the market number is sitting 5 points above the model projection, which is enough cushion for an under in a game involving New York's pace control tendencies. The Knicks are more comfortable in half-court possessions, and that can suppress transition chances even against opponents willing to play faster. Efficiency is also vulnerable to regression when totals climb into the mid-230s, especially if one side is forced into more contested half-court offense rather than clean early-clock looks. If the game stays competitive, late fouling is a risk to the under, but the elevated closing total already prices in plenty of scoring, leaving room for a slower-possession outcome to land below.