Utah Jazz at New Orleans Pelicans

Why the model likes it

The edge comes from a 3.1-point gap between market and model, enough to justify an under but with less room than the stronger plays on the slate. New Orleans can steer games into a more methodical structure, and if Utah struggles to score efficiently in the half court, total possessions and points per possession can both underwhelm this number. Shooting variance matters here because a total in the 230s often assumes above-average shotmaking or transition volume, and either can fall off if the game script tilts one-sided. A blowout is actually somewhat favorable to the under because it tends to reduce late-game urgency and can collapse pace in the fourth quarter.