Miami Heat at Charlotte Hornets
Prediction, pick and result · NBA · Tuesday, March 17, 2026
MIA
AwayHeat
106FINALTotal 242 · Under 233.5 missed
CHA
HomeHornets
136Official pick · counts in our record
LOSS · -0.50uUnder 233.50.5u
Model confidence61%Tier A play
Why the model likes it
This total is high for a matchup involving Miami's usual pace control and half-court tendencies. The market appears to be overpricing scoring efficiency relative to the projected environment.
Our number vs the market
Total points. Our model priced this game 4.0 points lower than the sportsbooks.
Market233.5
Our model229.5
Gap−4.0toward Under
225230235240245250
Market 233.5
Model 229.5
Final 242
March 17, 2026 · Prices and lines as of our morning run; model picks are information, not betting advice.