Indiana Pacers at San Antonio Spurs

Prediction, pick and result · NBA · Saturday, March 21, 2026

IND

AwayPacers

119

FINALTotal 253 · Under 233 missed

SAS

HomeSpurs

134

Official pick · counts in our record

LOSS · -0.50u

Under 2330.5u

Model confidence56%Tier A play

Why the model likes it

Market total looks a bit high relative to the projection, with blowout risk creating downside for fourth-quarter pace. This is a thinner qualifying edge, but still clears the 3-point threshold.

Our number vs the market

Total points. Our model priced this game 3.0 points lower than the sportsbooks.

Market233

Our model230.1

Gap−3.0toward Under

220230240250260

Market 233.1

Model 230.1

Final 253

March 21, 2026 · Prices and lines as of our morning run; model picks are information, not betting advice.