Memphis Grizzlies at Atlanta Hawks
Prediction, pick and result · NBA · Monday, March 23, 2026
MEM
AwayGrizzlies
107FINALTotal 253 · Under 239.5 missed
ATL
HomeHawks
146Official pick · counts in our record
LOSS · -0.50uUnder 239.50.5u
Model confidence72%Tier A play
Why the model likes it
This number looks aggressively high and likely a touch stale relative to a more sustainable scoring environment. The under benefits from both the model gap and the possibility of pace decay in a non-competitive script.
Our number vs the market
Total points. Our model priced this game 5.3 points lower than the sportsbooks.
Market239.5
Our model234.4
Gap−5.3toward Under
220230240250260
Market 239.7
Model 234.4
Final 253
March 23, 2026 · Prices and lines as of our morning run; model picks are information, not betting advice.