Dallas Mavericks at San Antonio Spurs
Prediction, pick and result · NBA · Friday, April 10, 2026
DAL
AwayMavericks
120FINALTotal 259 · Under 236.5 missed
SAS
HomeSpurs
139Official pick · counts in our record
LOSS · -0.50uUnder 236.50.5u
Model confidence74%Tier A play
Why the model likes it
Market looks inflated relative to the projection, and the large spread raises blowout risk that can kill fourth-quarter pace. This number appears a bit stale versus a materially lower model total.
Our number vs the market
Total points. Our model priced this game 7.9 points lower than the sportsbooks.
Market236.5
Our model228.5
Gap−7.9toward Under
220240260280
Market 236.4
Model 228.5
Final 259
April 10, 2026 · Prices and lines as of our morning run; model picks are information, not betting advice.