Atlanta Hawks at Miami Heat

Prediction, pick and result · NBA · Sunday, April 12, 2026

ATL

AwayHawks

117

FINALTotal 260 · Under 243.5 missed

MIA

HomeHeat

143

Official pick · counts in our record

LOSS · -1.00u

Under 243.51u

Model confidence84%Tier A play

Why the model likes it

The market total is very high relative to the model, which is 9.3 points lower. This is a strong under based on how difficult it is to sustain a 244-level scoring environment without extreme pace and shooting luck.

Our number vs the market

Total points. Our model priced this game 9.0 points lower than the sportsbooks.

Market243

Our model234.2

Gap−9.0toward Under

220230240250260270

Market 243.2

Model 234.2

Final 260

April 12, 2026 · Prices and lines as of our morning run; model picks are information, not betting advice.