Denver Nuggets at San Antonio Spurs

Prediction, pick and result · NBA · Sunday, April 12, 2026

DEN

AwayNuggets

128

FINALTotal 246 · Under 238.5 missed

SAS

HomeSpurs

118

Official pick · counts in our record

LOSS · -1.00u

Under 238.51u

Model confidence86%Tier A play

Why the model likes it

This total appears materially inflated; the model is 10.3 points lower, making the under one of the strongest positions on the slate. If the market is stale, it is stale high.

Our number vs the market

Total points. Our model priced this game 4.8 points lower than the sportsbooks.

Market233

Our model228.4

Gap−4.8toward Under

220230240250260

Market 233.2

Model 228.4

Final 246

April 12, 2026 · Prices and lines as of our morning run; model picks are information, not betting advice.